447.The German Tank Problem
★★★estimationCh. 2 — Axiomatic and Conditional Probability444+ Problems in Probability
German tanks carry distinct serial numbers . You observe 6 tanks with serial numbers 38, 17, 59, 42, 97, and 120. Under the frequentist (minimum-variance unbiased) approach, what is the best guess for ?
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Start from the sample maximum — it underestimates . Scale up by the expected gap between order statistics.
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