391.The Witness Problem
★★★conditional probabilityCh. 2 — Axiomatic and Conditional Probability444+ Problems in Probability
Someone leaked IP from a quant firm! A witness claims the leaker was a trader. Witnesses are correct of the time, and of the firm's employees are traders (the rest are researchers). Given the witness's statement, what is the probability the leaker was a trader?
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Two ways the witness says "trader": right about a trader, or wrong about a researcher.
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